LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The federal government stopped collecting money from President Trump's tariff - emergency tariffs overnight. That's days after the Supreme Court ruled those import taxes were illegal. The Trump administration is moving quickly to replace the outlawed tariffs with new ones, and that's creating a new round of uncertainty. NPR's Scart (ph) - sorry, Scott. NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. Sorry about that.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: Good morning. So for the U.S. companies that have been paying these tariffs, are they going to save money now?
HORSLEY: Well, some will. Some may not. I spoke with Jay Foreman, whose Basic Fun! company imports Lincoln Logs and Tonka Trucks and other toys, mostly from China. He's already applied for a $7 million refund for the tariffs the Supreme Court says were wrongfully collected. Lots of other companies are doing the same, but President Trump quickly announced a new round of import taxes. So while Foreman expects his tariff bill will be lower this year, he doesn't think it's going to be zero.
JAY FOREMAN: You can't go to sleep on this president. And nothing was more true than what happened between Friday and Saturday, which is waking up in the morning to the court case, and then no tariffs. Then by lunchtime, 10% tariffs, then going to bed and waking up the next morning to 15% tariffs.
HORSLEY: That 15% global tariff that Trump announced on Saturday represents a discount for goods coming out of China, but for goods coming out of other countries like the U.K., it would actually be a tax increase. Now, that tariff is temporary. It's set to expire in five months unless Congress votes to extend it, which is a big if just ahead of the midterm elections. So, you know, for businesses trying to make plans for the back-to-school season or the second half of 2026, there's just a lot of question marks.
FADEL: Yeah. What other tariffs is the president considering, and would they make up for the ones the high court struck down?
HORSLEY: Well, there are several laws that the president could use here. He used some in his first term to tax imported steel and aluminum, for example, or to punish China for what he called unfair trading practices. Those laws come with more strings attached, but trade expert Kathleen Claussen of Georgetown says they could give the president the building blocks to recreate the tariff while the Supreme Court knocked down.
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KATHLEEN CLAUSSEN: In the end, he could probably piece together something very close to, if not identical, frankly, to what he's done so far. That's not to say so then we might not have legal challenges in the courts once again. But certainly on the surface, I think the president could move to replicate what he's already done using these other statutes.
HORSLEY: But Claussen says it's really unpredictable how those pieces might fit together and how that might affect our different trading partners. And unpredictable, Leila, is not a word that investors like to hear. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled more than 800 points yesterday.
FADEL: You said these other tariff laws come with strings attached. What kind of strings?
HORSLEY: For example, the law Trump is using to tax steel and aluminum imports. That's specifically designed to protect national security. So Marc Busch, who was an adviser to the Commerce Department and the U.S. trade representative, says it might not apply to every other kind of import.
MARC BUSCH: It's really hard to understand how wooden furniture and vanity bathroom sets are national security issues.
HORSLEY: Another section of tariff law aims to crack down on unfair trading practices. But it would be hard to argue that every other country in the world has been cheating on the U.S. So there are some limits, but, as we've seen, this president is willing to push the limits up to the point where either the courts or Congress stand up and say, no more. It's also possible that we'll start to see some trading partners push back in a way they mostly haven't done so far. The European Union this week pushed off a vote on a trade deal with the U.S., and finally, customers and voters will have a say over whether they think Trump's tariffs have been a plus or a minus for their pocketbooks.
FADEL: That's NPR's Scott Horsley. Thank you, Scott.
HORSLEY: Thanks, Leila.
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